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2010 – SECTORS TO BANK ON

Posted by Arun On 6:00 PM

2010 – SECTORS TO BANK ON

 

 

 

We have entered into a new decade, into a new year and already, the first trading session on the stock exchanges seems different. Well, different because we all have come back rejuvenated from a long weekend and have had enough time to look back and correct the wrongs of 2009. More importantly, we have begun trading at 9AM starting today, the first day of trading in 2010. And that surely is very historic.

 

For 138 years the BSE had followed the same trade timings and that has been changed forever now. Call it pursuit for more money or the hurry to get into algorithm trading, which is again about ore money, things for the age old BSE has changed forever from today. NSE is the new kid on the block and has always been looked upon as the new generation bourse and it thus seems more adaptable to such changes.

 

So apart from looking at the New Year trading much earlier than all these years, how does 2010 look as an investment?  We have no crystal ball here nor are we well versed with the paths of the planets. But logic, based on 2009, says that 2010 will be much better yet if growth was the challenge last year, this year it would be soaring costs. Companies in 2009 needed business but in 2010, business would be good but the real challenge would be to translate this good topline into healthy profit margins. Clearly most of the companies would pass on the costs to the customers.

 

The good news to begin the year was from the export sector. November showed an export growth of 18%. Many could shrug if off saying that the spurt looks good on account of the lower base of November 2008. Nevertheless, on a MoM, exports grew 5.6% from $12.5 billion in Oct to $13.2 billion in Nov. So that's a growth alright!

 

Then the question arises – which are the sectors to look for in 2010?

 

Undoubtedly, infrastructure continues to remain high on the radar. Pharma is also a big thing, especially companies with substantial R&D. Education is one sector which is also expected to see a huge inflow, especially from PE investors and venture capitalists. Banking, which will remain as main engines for pushing growth is also on the radar. With credit off take expected to take off in and lending to core sector also expected to go up, we could more robust growth from this sector in 2010. Commodity stocks – especially sugar, tea, rice and agriculture based commodities, which is already on most of the investors portfolio could see more action in 2010. Another sector to watch out for is the non-ferrous. Apart from China being the main driver, other factors like past production curtailments; tighter scrap supply; and improving demand are all indicative of major improvement in prices of non ferrous metals over the next few months. Auto sector, especially commercial vehicles are expected to see more growth than passenger cars in 2010. With interest rates expected to rise and the advantages of the Pay Commission also over, we need to see if the growth in passenger car sales would remain as robust as in 2009.

 

Other sectors to bank on would be those associated with water, renewable energy like solar and wind power. Hotels are one sector which will bounce back with tremendous vigour in 2010. Crude prices are expected to pick up as other developed countries will now get onto to the growth bandwagon in 2010 and hence oil and gas companies is something which you to need to watch out for. IT is also one sector which is expected to do well, only if the US dollar stops playing the spoilt sport.

 

2009 was viewed as a year of transition and 2010 would be more about consolidation.


Patience & politeness are a reflection of a person's inner strength.
 A S R Pratap 

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